Press Release: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts OH-14 in Rader’s Favor

Thursday, March 15, 2018
Contact: Brexton Isaacs,
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts OH-14 in Rader’s Favor
Movement indicates that Joyce’s seat is vulnerable

Novelty, OH – On Thursday morning, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, one of the leading sources for analysis on House races across the country, shifted its designation for Ohio’s 14th Congressional District from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” The ratings change indicates that Congressman David Joyce is no longer secure for reelection as he faces a strong challenge from Betsy Rader.

“This shift tells us what we already know — voters in Ohio’s 14th district are ready for change and unhappy with Congressman Joyce’s failure to lead in Congress,” said Betsy Rader, Joyce’s Democratic opponent. “I hear from Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike that they want a member of Congress who actually shows up in the district and listens to our communities; they’re frustrated that Congressman Joyce has refused to hold a town hall.”

The movement comes on the heels of an endorsement from EMILY’s List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, and Conor Lamb’s upset victory in PA-18. Lamb’s district is right across the Ohio border from OH-14 and has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+11, compared to R+5 for OH-14.

“Voters really appreciate that our campaign is focused on access to affordable healthcare, creating good-paying jobs, and support for public education at every level, from early childhood through high school, to vocational school, college, and career transition programs. They’re tired of politicians taking big checks from corporations and not listening to their voters. That’s why this race is in play – people in our district are unhappy with the ‘business as usual,’ special interest-focused representation they’ve received from Congressman Joyce” said Rader who is endorsed by End Citizens United and in January took the No Corporate PAC Pledge.

Congressman Joyce faces his strongest general election challenge, untested. In his 2016 and 2012 races, Joyce’s opponents did not communicate via TV or radio and his 2014 opponent spent less than $375k on paid communications. In 2012, after being appointed to the GOP nomination when popular incumbent Steve LaTourette retired following the primary, Joyce only received only 54%​, despite the Democratic candidate not spending money in the race.

OH-14 voters have demonstrated a willingness to vote for federal, state, and local Democrats. In 2006, Sherrod Brown, who has endorsed Rader, won the district with 56.6% of the vote and Ted Strickland carried it in the Governor’s race with 65.2%. In 2012, Senator Brown won OH-14 with 50.5% of the two-way vote. President Obama nearly won OH-14 in 2008, falling short just 0.1%, and in 2012, falling short by 3.3%.